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Bitcoin Traders Brush Off September Blues, Predict Price May ‘Surprise the Bears’

Tyr Capital’s Chief Investment Officer, Ed Hindi, believes that despite Bitcoin’s typical negative performance in September, factors like a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and a strong economy could lead to a price surprise. Hindi suggests Bitcoin is more likely to close September above $60,000 than below it, countering the usual bearish narrative.

• Main Points:

  • September’s History: Bitcoin has historically posted an average loss of 4.49% in September, making it the worst-performing month for the asset.

  • Rate Cut Optimism: A potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, combined with economic strength, could boost Bitcoin prices, surprising bearish traders.

  • Bullish Sentiment Among Traders: Some traders believe Bitcoin could rise above $60,000 by month-end, invalidating short positions and signaling bullish momentum.

• Detailed Insights:

  • September’s History of Losses: Historically, September has been a tough month for Bitcoin, with CoinGlass data showing an average monthly loss of 4.49% over the last 11 years. This has led to concerns of another "September dump." However, some analysts believe that the narrative may change this year.

  • Optimism from Tyr Capital: Ed Hindi, Chief Investment Officer at Tyr Capital, suggests that while the negative sentiment around September is valid, the macroeconomic factors at play could drive a surprising outcome. Hindi argues that a combination of a U.S. Fed rate cut and robust economic conditions could push Bitcoin above $60,000, defying the usual September blues. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $56,633, having stayed below $60,000 since late August.

  • Short Positions at Risk: A move back above $60,000 could liquidate over $584 million in short positions, according to CoinGlass data. This would trigger a wave of buying, pushing Bitcoin further upward. Daan Crypto Trades, a prominent crypto trader, noted that while the average September return is -4%, Bitcoin’s volatility means this month could still hold surprises for traders.

  • Market Structure Watch: Traders like Daan Crypto Trades are watching for a shift in Bitcoin’s market structure, hoping to see a "higher high and higher low," which would indicate bullish dominance. For a true reversal, Daan suggests that Bitcoin must reclaim $65,000 to show strength and confirm a bullish uptrend. Similarly, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland emphasized the need for Bitcoin to bounce back above $58,000 to continue the uptrend that began in August.

Related: Kiyosaki’s Alert: BRICS Crypto Threat to US Dollar

While September may historically be a challenging month for Bitcoin, some traders remain optimistic, betting on favorable macroeconomic factors to break the trend. Investors are watching closely for signals that could drive Bitcoin past key resistance levels and surprise the bears.

Ether All-Time High in 2024: Possible, but Unlikely

Ether (ETH) faces challenges reaching a new all-time high in 2024 as it competes with tech stocks providing higher returns. While spot Ether ETFs attract Wall Street interest, Ether’s growth potential remains uncertain.

• Main Points:

  • Weak narrative for Ether: Lacks a compelling story to drive price growth.

  • Competition with tech stocks: Tech companies show better revenue and performance.

  • 2024 all-time high unlikely: Analysts predict only a 10% chance of surpassing $4,878.

  • US election as a catalyst: Political events may impact volatility and price movements.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Weak narrative for Ether: Ether struggles to present a strong narrative compared to tech stocks, which deliver better returns and growth.

  • Competition with tech stocks: Ether ETFs have attracted Wall Street attention, but tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta far outperform Ether in returns this year.

  • All-time high unlikely: Analysts give Ether only a 10% chance of reaching its 2024 all-time high, with certain events needing alignment.

  • US election impact: The 2024 US election could be a critical event, adding significant volatility to Ethereum's price.

  • Short-term price swing: Traders expect higher daily price swings for Ether, signaling potential volatility despite its consolidation phase.

Related: Bitcoin Consolidation Continues

The US election, rate cuts, and financial liquidity are key factors affecting Ether’s 2024 prospects.

Crypto in 'Extreme Fear' as Arthur Hayes Predicts Sub-$50K Bitcoin

Crypto market sentiment has dropped into “extreme fear” as Bitcoin briefly fell below $56,000. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts Bitcoin may slide below $50,000 over the weekend.

• Main Points:

  • Market sentiment: Crypto sentiment enters “extreme fear” as Bitcoin drops.

  • Arthur Hayes prediction: Bitcoin could fall under $50K this weekend.

  • Market dip: $94.26 million liquidated in the last 24 hours.

  • US economy concerns: Bitcoin struggles amid weak economic data.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Market sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 22, showing “extreme fear” after Bitcoin's dip below $56,000.

  • Arthur Hayes prediction: Hayes expects Bitcoin to drop another 12%, aiming for a sub-$50K price over the weekend due to market weakness.

  • Market dip impact: Bitcoin’s drop dragged major cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Solana, down by 2–3%, causing significant liquidations.

  • US economy concerns: Weak US job data raised concerns, adding pressure on Bitcoin amid worries over Federal Reserve rate decisions.

    Liquidations spike: $94.26 million in liquidations occurred, led by long bets on Bitcoin and Ether, signaling market instability.

Related: Microstrategy Joins MSCI World Index Amid Bitcoin Rally

Market sentiment and economic factors are driving heightened volatility across the crypto space.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results