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5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin begins September under pressure, trading near $57,000 and lacking bullish momentum. While historical trends point to a challenging month, some analysts see potential for a rebound. Here’s what you need to know as the new month kicks off.

• Main Points:

  • BTC Price Near August Lows: Bitcoin struggles around $57,000, with analysts predicting further dips if bulls don’t reclaim control.

  • Labor Day Focus: U.S. job data and Fed remarks this week will be crucial in determining market direction.

  • Historical Trends: September is typically a “red” month for Bitcoin, but a post-halving breakout is still possible by month-end.

  • Puell Multiple Signal: The Puell Multiple suggests we may be nearing a buying opportunity, though not at a macro bottom yet.

  • WaveNet Model Prediction: A deep learning model hints at a potential BTC price bounce, possibly up to $65,000.

• Detailed Insights:

  • BTC Price Near August Lows: Bitcoin has started September with a whimper, struggling to maintain support at $57,000 after failing to impress around the monthly close. Data shows a lack of interest in derivatives markets at these prices, with funding rates remaining low. Some traders forecast further dips, potentially down to $56,000 or even $54,000, before any relief rally.

  • Labor Day Focus: With U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, attention turns to the week’s key events, including the release of U.S. job data on September 6. This data could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions at their upcoming meeting on September 18, with the potential for macro-related volatility in the crypto markets.

  • Historical Trends: Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, often producing losses. Despite this, some analysts, like Rekt Capital, suggest that Bitcoin could still be in the process of a post-halving breakout, possibly by late September. October, however, is historically a stronger month, offering the potential for a significant rally.

  • Puell Multiple Signal: The Puell Multiple, a classic Bitcoin metric, is nearing its long-term “buy” zone. While it’s not yet at a macro bottom, its current levels suggest that Bitcoin may soon present a strong buying opportunity for long-term investors.

  • WaveNet Model Prediction: Using deep learning, CryptoQuant’s WaveNet model predicts a “relative increase” in Bitcoin’s price for September. The model indicates a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching up to $65,000 this month, offering a glimmer of hope for a bullish turn.

Related: BRICS Crypto Threat to US Dollar

As September unfolds, investors should remain cautious yet vigilant, as Bitcoin’s historical patterns and current market signals suggest a complex and potentially volatile month ahead.

Bitcoin Whales Influence Market Amidst 1K Token Move

Amidst a bearish market, Bitcoin whales are actively buying the dip, with recent purchases totaling nearly 3,000 BTC. This aggressive accumulation, combined with on-chain data, suggests a possible rally up to $62,000, despite the current downtrend.

• Main Points:

  • Whale Activity: A Bitcoin whale purchased nearly 3,000 BTC worth $174.4 million from Binance over four days.

  • Key Support Level: Bitcoin is trading at a crucial support level of $57,300, below the 200 EMA, indicating a downtrend.

  • Potential Rally: Despite the downtrend, the RSI indicates a possible price reversal, with speculation of a rally to $62,000.

  • On-Chain Data: Exchange reserves have significantly fallen, suggesting buying pressure from investors.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Whale Activity: On September 2, Spot On Chain reported that a Bitcoin whale purchased nearly 1,000 BTC worth $57.4 million from Binance, adding to a recent purchase of 2,000 BTC. This brings the whale's total holdings to 8,559 BTC, worth $494 million. The same whale had previously sold 7,790 BTC in July 2024, just before the market turned bearish.

  • Key Support Level: According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin is at a critical support level of $57,300, currently trading below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This positioning indicates a bearish trend, with the market sentiment reflecting caution.

  • Potential Rally: Despite the bearish sentiment, there is speculation of an upward rally to $62,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in an oversold area, indicating a potential price reversal. This could be a positive sign for traders, suggesting that a bullish outlook might emerge.

  • On-Chain Data: Supporting this bullish potential, CryptoQuant’s data shows a significant decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves, implying that investors are accumulating BTC off exchanges, which typically reduces selling pressure. Additionally, CoinGlass’s BTC Long/Short Ratio at 1.0043 indicates bullish sentiment, with bulls potentially liquidating short positions.

  • Key Liquidation Levels

    • Lower Side: If Bitcoin’s price drops to $56,760, approximately $600 million worth of long positions could be liquidated.

    • Upper Side: Conversely, if the price rises to $58,300, around $390 million in short positions might be liquidated.

Related: Bitcoin Consolidation Continues

As Bitcoin navigates this critical phase, the actions of large holders and on-chain indicators suggest that the market could see significant movement, with the potential for both downside risks and upside opportunities.

Bitcoin’s Cup and Handle Pattern: Is a $110,000 Breakout on the Horizon?

Bitcoin’s long-term Cup and Handle pattern hints at a potential explosive breakout, with the possibility of reaching $110,000. As Bitcoin nears the end of this formation, analysts predict a significant rally in Q4 2024.

• Main Points:

  • Cup and Handle Pattern: Bitcoin is currently in the “handle” phase of a three-year Cup and Handle pattern.

  • Potential Breakout: If the pattern completes, Bitcoin could skyrocket to $110,000.

  • Q4 2024 Outlook: Analysts are optimistic about a major rally by the end of the year based on this technical pattern.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Cup and Handle Pattern: The Cup and Handle is a well-known bullish chart pattern in technical analysis. It consists of a rounded “cup” followed by a consolidation “handle.” For Bitcoin, the cup formed between November 2021, when it peaked at $69,000, and its low of $15,500. After recovering to a new high of $73,800 in March 2024, Bitcoin entered the handle phase, characterized by a slight downward drift as the market consolidates.

  • Potential Breakout: Traders use the Cup and Handle pattern to predict future price targets by measuring the depth of the cup and projecting it from the breakout point. According to an analysis by Titan of Crypto, this projection suggests Bitcoin could rally to $110,000 if the pattern plays out.

  • Q4 2024 Outlook: As we enter the final quarter of the year, the handle phase is nearing completion. While no chart pattern can guarantee future performance, the size and duration of this formation indicate the potential for a significant rally. If Bitcoin breaks out as expected, it could lead to a historic surge, with $110,000 as a possible target.

Related: Microstrategy Joins MSCI World Index Amid Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin’s chart is poised for what could be a major move in Q4 2024. The completion of the Cup and Handle pattern could set the stage for a powerful rally, with $110,000 in sight. Investors and traders will be watching closely to see if this classic pattern delivers on its bullish promise.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results