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Bitcoin ATH Bull Run Unlikely if Social Sentiment Runs Too Hot

According to Santiment, Bitcoin may not reach a new all-time high soon, as social media sentiment is at its most bullish in months. Historically, markets tend to move in the opposite direction of popular

• Main Points:

  • Bullish social sentiment surges: Social media is seeing 1.8 bullish posts for every bearish one, raising concerns of an overheated market.

  • Bitcoin price up 14% in two weeks: Bitcoin has climbed from below $58,000 to above $66,000 since Sept. 17, making it the best September in terms of gains.

  • Fear and Greed Index rises: The index has returned to “greed” levels, jumping from extreme fear earlier in September.

  • Potential delays to Bitcoin ATH: Bearish demand for stablecoins in China and market correction could slow Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Bullish social sentiment surges: Santiment reports that there are nearly double the number of bullish posts about Bitcoin compared to bearish ones on social media. Historically, markets tend to move against the crowd’s expectations, suggesting that Bitcoin’s rise may slow down if sentiment remains overheated.

  • Bitcoin price up 14% in two weeks: Bitcoin’s price has rallied 14% in the last two weeks, climbing from under $58,000 on Sept. 17 to over $66,000 on Sept. 28. This makes it one of Bitcoin’s best Septembers for gains, with the cryptocurrency up 12% this month.

  • Fear and Greed Index rises: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from extreme fear (22) earlier in September to greed (61) on Sept. 30, reflecting rising market optimism.

  • Potential delays to Bitcoin ATH: Despite positive momentum, factors like bearish stablecoin demand in China and an overheated sentiment environment could delay Bitcoin’s path to a new all-time high.

Related: MicroStrategy Buys $1.026B More Bitcoin as Tesla and Other Companies Follow Suit

While Bitcoin’s recent rally is encouraging, analysts caution that overly bullish sentiment may lead to a correction. Investors should keep an eye on market conditions and sentiment metrics for signals of a potential pullback.

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Why Is XRP Price Up Today?

XRP outperformed the broader crypto market today, rising 1.5% while the overall market dipped slightly. Increased trading volume and a strong market structure suggest XRP may be on track for a sustained price recovery.

• Main Points:

  • XRP price rally: XRP hit an intra-day high of $0.6328, outperforming the global crypto market, which is down 0.3%.

  • Increased trading volume: XRP's trading volume surged 133% over the past week, hitting $2.2 billion.

  • XRP outperforms Bitcoin: XRP has gained 31% in the last 90 days, compared to Bitcoin’s 5% increase.

  • Bullish technical signals: A four-year symmetrical triangle pattern suggests potential explosive growth for XRP, with projections ranging from $10 to $20.

• Detailed Insights:

  • XRP price rally: XRP rose from a low of $0.5857 on Sept. 28 to an intra-day high of $0.6328 on Sept. 29, signaling strong upward momentum. The altcoin’s market cap increased to $35.4 billion, securing its position as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency.

  • Increased trading volume: XRP’s trading volume surged to $2.2 billion on Sept. 28, a 133% increase since Sept. 21. This heightened activity reflects growing market interest in XRP after weeks of sideways price action.

  • XRP outperforms Bitcoin: XRP has outperformed Bitcoin significantly, gaining 31% over the last 90 days, compared to Bitcoin’s modest 5% rise. XRP also recorded 25% gains against Bitcoin during this period, indicating strengthening market structure.

  • Bullish technical signals: Analysts are pointing to a large symmetrical triangle on the XRP monthly chart, indicating a potential breakout. Crypto analyst Milkybull Crypto predicts an explosive move, with price targets ranging from $10 to $20 if XRP breaks above the upper trendline.

Related: Former Chinese Finance Minister Urges Crypto Study After US Bitcoin ETF Shift

XRP’s recent price action and strong technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook. If it breaks above key resistance levels, XRP could experience significant price growth in the coming months.

3 Signs Bitcoin Price Isn’t Ready for a New All-Time High

Bitcoin has surged to its highest level in two months, nearing $66,000, but data from China’s stablecoin market, low retail investor participation, and cautious BTC derivatives markets indicate that a new all-time high is unlikely in the near term.

• Main Points:

  • Low retail investor participation: Retail interest remains tepid despite Bitcoin’s recent 21% rise, as seen in low Coinbase app rankings.

  • China’s stablecoin discount: A persistent discount in USDT in Chinese markets signals bearish sentiment, despite institutional inflows elsewhere.

  • Skepticism in Bitcoin futures markets: Bitcoin futures contracts show a lack of bullish conviction, with the annualized premium stabilizing at a cautious 6%.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Low retail investor participation: Despite Bitcoin’s recent price rally, retail investors remain on the sidelines. The Coinbase mobile app, a popular platform among retail traders, ranked 385 on Sept. 28—an improvement from Sept. 14 but still a sign of lukewarm interest. This suggests retail participation hasn’t yet fueled Bitcoin’s price gains.

  • China’s stablecoin discount: In contrast to institutional inflows in the U.S., the Chinese stablecoin market shows bearish sentiment. USDT has been trading at a discount below parity for the past two weeks, indicating a lack of demand from Chinese investors, which typically aligns with bearish market conditions.

  • Skepticism in Bitcoin futures markets: Data from Bitcoin futures contracts shows that sophisticated traders remain cautious. Despite Bitcoin’s rally, the futures premium remains at 6%, indicating a neutral stance. This lack of conviction suggests that many traders are not yet betting on a sustained bull run.

Related: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs See $1.1B Inflows, Largest Since Mid-July

While Bitcoin’s price gains are notable, the lack of retail interest, bearish signals from China, and cautious futures markets point to a market that is not yet ready for a breakout to new all-time highs.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results