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3 Key Metrics Signal Possible 'Up Only' Season for Altcoins

Analysts point to three key metrics suggesting that altcoins may be entering a bullish phase, signaling a potential “up only” season as the market recovers from a recent sell-off.

• Main Points:

  • Bullish altcoin patterns: Analysts highlight an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the Altcoin Season Index, signaling a possible altcoin rally.

  • Stochastic RSI crossover: A bullish crossover on the three-week Stochastic RSI points to an upcoming rally in altcoins.

  • Total market cap recovery: The total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ether (TOTAL3) has rebounded, holding above key support levels.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Inverse head-and-shoulders pattern: Crypto analyst Moustache identified a bullish pattern forming on the Altcoin Season Index chart, indicating that altcoins could outperform Bitcoin. The index currently sits at 39, with 75% needed to officially declare an altcoin season.

  • Stochastic RSI bullish crossover: Another key metric, the Stochastic RSI, has formed a bullish crossover, which typically precedes upward price movements in altcoins. Analyst Titan of Crypto suggests this could signal a major altcoin rally.

  • Altcoin market cap rebound: TOTAL3, the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ether, has risen 19% since September 6. Altcoins remain above the ascending trendline, and if they hold above key resistance levels, a sustained rally could trigger the long-awaited altseason.

Related: Bitcoin Drops Below $59K — Will History Repeat With a 24% Decline?

With bullish signals emerging across multiple metrics, altcoins could be poised for significant gains in the near term.

Something Strange Is Happening with Bitcoin and MicroStrategy

Bitcoin jumped 4.5% today, but MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) surged 12%, creating a puzzling disconnect between the value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company’s stock price.

• Main Points:

  • Bitcoin rises 4.5%: Bitcoin rebounded after two days of losses, but remains within its long-standing $50K–$70K range.

  • MicroStrategy stock surge: Despite 97% of its assets in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy stock hit an all-time high, trading at 2.5 times the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

  • Disconnect between BTC and MSTR: The stock’s surge far outpaces Bitcoin’s modest gains, sparking questions about what’s driving the rally.

  • Potential short squeeze: Some analysts suspect a fund holding long Bitcoin and short MSTR positions is closing out, fueling the stock’s rise.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Bitcoin’s modest rebound: After two days of losses, Bitcoin gained 4.5%, bringing it back to its typical trading range of $50K–$70K. Despite the jump, Bitcoin remains far from breaking out of this range.

  • MicroStrategy stock anomaly: MSTR stock surged 12% today, despite its Bitcoin holdings being valued at $15.1 billion, while its market cap reached $37.14 billion before today’s rally. This significant premium over its Bitcoin holdings is reminiscent of market euphoria seen in early 2021.

  • Short squeeze theory: Kerrisdale Capital had previously promoted a strategy of going long Bitcoin while shorting MSTR, suggesting that today’s market movement may be due to a short squeeze on this pair trade.

  • MSTR’s potential meme status: While MSTR’s stock is breaking out, the gap between its price and the value of its Bitcoin assets could narrow soon, raising questions about how far this rally can go before correcting.

Related: Why Is XRP Price Up Today?

The unusual divergence between Bitcoin’s price and MicroStrategy’s stock has raised eyebrows, with many watching closely for the next move in both markets.

Bitcoin 'Uptober' on Hold — Should You Buy the Dip?

Bitcoin’s usual October rally hasn’t materialized, with BTC down 4% this month. Despite this, some analysts suggest a long consolidation phase could lead to a stronger breakout, raising the question: Should you buy the dip?

• Main Points:

  • October downturn: Bitcoin has dropped 4% since the start of the month, breaking from historical bullish trends.

  • Wave of selling: Long-term holders, particularly in the 12-18 month range, sold BTC, triggering a large sell-off not seen since January 2021.

  • Halving year underperforms: Despite high expectations, Bitcoin’s halving-year performance is showing prolonged sideways movement.

  • Potential for breakout: Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s extended consolidation could lead to a strong upward breakout.

• Detailed Insights:

  • October’s sluggish start: Historically, October delivers positive returns for Bitcoin, but so far, 2024 has been an exception. BTC faced a 4% drop after being rejected at $66.5K, disappointing investors who expected a rally.

  • Wave of selling: Data from CryptoQuant’s spent output age bands metric revealed that both long-term and short-term holders sold off Bitcoin earlier this month, marking the largest sell-off since January 2021.

  • Halving year stagnation: According to CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin is on track for its longest sideways price action in a halving year, despite early-year enthusiasm fueled by the approval of spot ETFs.

  • Buy the dip scenario: Crypto analyst nestay points out that the first half of October has historically been bearish before turning bullish later in the month, suggesting now may be a good time to buy the dip, though future gains remain uncertain.

Related: Bitcoin Price Gains 'On Horizon' as Whales Accumulate 1.5M BTC

While Bitcoin’s performance has been underwhelming so far, the potential for a strong breakout still exists, encouraging long-term holders to consider buying the dip.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results