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Bitcoin weakness tightens grip on crypto
BTC hovers near 107,000 as ETF demand cools and retail activity slides. Correlations rise, so altcoins face the same pressure while XRP ETF talk gains traction.
Joe G & Money Talks
November 03, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
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What we will talk about today...
If Bitcoin sinks, ETH and XRP likely drop too.
BTC starts November soft, traders eye 105,000 to 112,000 levels.
Wall Street models a spot XRP ETF, approval still pending.
ETF demand slips below new BTC supply, price risk builds.
A BTC shock often drags majors together. Liquidity thins, sentiment cracks, and correlations jump.
Correlation spike: During stress, BTC-ETH and BTC-XRP move closer. Markets treat crypto as one risk bucket.
Beta matters: ETH and XRP price moves scale with BTC via beta. Bigger beta, larger drawdown.
Two channels: Forced selling through derivatives and order books, plus confidence loss that pushes flows to cash or gold.
“The market views the entire crypto sector as a single asset class.”
“High positive correlation is an empirical measure of shared systemic risk.”
BTC starts November soft, traders eye 105,000 to 112,000 levels.
Weekend bounce faded fast. Order-book liquidity now clusters near 105,000 to 106,000 and around 112,000.
Seasonality vs reality: November often prints gains near 40 percent on average since 2013, yet price sits near 107,000.
Sentiment split: Polymarket shows 33 percent odds for a monthly close above 120,000. Fear and Greed Index stays in fear.
Retail retreat: Active addresses drop to 872,000 from 1.18 million year-over-year, a 26.1 percent slide.
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“In all honesty, this could be one of the most difficult trading weeks of Q4.” — CrypNuevo
“Price took out the lower bound at 108.5K. There’s still a decent cluster around 112K.” — Daan Crypto Trades
Wall Street models a spot XRP ETF, approval still pending.
Analysts move beyond tweets to desk models, pointing to fast first-month demand.
Early flow math: Matt Hougan and Nate Geraci see potential for about 1 billion dollars of early assets.
Faster path: SEC generic listing standards from September 2025 shorten filings for certain spot crypto ETPs. Review remains in place.
Access today: Europe lists physically backed XRP ETPs. U.S. approval for a spot XRP ETF has not arrived.
“Investors are severely underestimating the flows.” — Nate Geraci
“The fund could reach about 1 billion dollars within its first few months.” — Matt Hougan
ETF demand slips below new BTC supply, price risk builds.
Institutional bid weakens after October’s shock, pressuring trend support.
Flows flip: Spot BTC ETFs record 1.67 billion dollars in net outflows since Oct. 11. No inflows on Oct. 31 with 191 million dollars in net outflow that day.
Supply gap: Combined institutional buying drops below daily mined BTC for the first time in seven months.
Treasury stress: Bitcoin-heavy public companies trade below NAV, signaling weaker confidence and possible selling.
“Won’t lie, this was the main metric keeping me bullish the last months.” — Charles Edwards
“Not good.” — Charles Edwards
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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results