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Bitcoin volatility spikes, leverage unwinds, and yield talk shifts to stablecoins

BTC slid to the low 112,000s with record 2025 long liquidations. Traders debate support, while stablecoin yields face tighter rules and tax frictions.

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What we will talk about today...

Record 2025 long wipeout sets tone for week

“Uptober” faces a test after a red start

Bitcoin signals cycle fatigue after drop to 112,000

How to approach yield bearing stablecoins in 2025

Record 2025 long wipeout sets tone for week

BTC tapped 112,000 as more than 1 billion dollars of longs were flushed. Traders eye 100,000 support and macro prints.

  • Leverage reset: About 1.7 billion dollars in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with longs at roughly 1.62 billion. Open interest dropped by about 2 billion dollars.

  • Macro watch: PCE inflation and a Powell speech sit front and center. Rate path signals drive risk appetite.

  • Rumor risk: Talk of major US political Bitcoin news stirs positioning into Tuesday.

“Hold the higher low here, and BTC likely pushes for 120,000 next.” — Jelle

“I’m expecting another bearish leg that could drag BTC down toward the 100k zone.” — Captain Faibik

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“Uptober” faces a test after a red start

October is usually green for BTC, but mixed signals and macro uncertainty cool enthusiasm.

  • Seasonals: BTC finished October higher in 10 of the past 12 years. Gains hit 48 percent in 2017 and 40 percent in 2021. Last October loss was 2018 at minus 3.8 percent.

  • Split views: Bulls cite high odds of more Fed easing and fresh liquidity. Others point to low implied volatility, weaker inflows, and profit taking.

“With this liquidity drain complete, up only mode resumes.” — Arthur Hayes

“We expect any BTC rallies to be relatively muted given low implied volatility and profit takers capping upside.” — Augustine Fan

Bitcoin signals cycle fatigue after drop to 112,000

A sharp selloff hit leveraged longs. Onchain and derivatives data point to fading momentum.

  • Drop and wipeout: BTC fell about 4 percent to near 112,000. Roughly 1.6 billion dollars in long positions were liquidated across crypto.

  • Onchain softness: SOPR and a weaker Sharpe ratio show lower risk adjusted returns and fading profitability.

  • Order flow flips: Taker buy or sell ratio near 0.79 signals sellers in control and rising downside risk.

“Bitcoin is already showing signs of cycle exhaustion and very few are seeing it.” — Joao Wedson

“Even if BTC hits new all time highs, profitability will remain low, and the real focus will be on altcoins.” — Joao Wedson

How to approach yield bearing stablecoins in 2025

Stablecoin yields exist, but access, taxes, and structure matter more than headline APYs.

  • Models to know: Tokenized treasuries and money market funds, DeFi savings wrappers like sDAI, and synthetic dollars like sUSDe.

  • Access limits: US and EU rules block issuer paid interest on payment stablecoins. Many treasury tokens restrict retail and US users.

  • Taxes bite: Rebases and rewards are treated as income when received. Disposals later create capital gains or losses.

“The clear message, always check if you are legally allowed to hold a yield bearing stablecoin where you live.”

“Treat stablecoin yield like an investment product, not risk free savings.”

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results