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Bitcoin under pressure, recovery signals build

Bitcoin trades far below recent highs. Network metrics, Fed liquidity, and large buyers point to recovery risk reward over the next year. You get an edge by watching real liquidity, on chain data, and key levels instead of headlines.

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Joe G & Money Talks
December 02, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

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What we will talk about today...

96% on chain upside signal for 2026

Fed cash wave versus 50,000 dollar risk

Bollinger Bands hint at 55,000 dollar floor

ETH whale reloads, Lee shifts BTC target

96% on chain upside signal for 2026

Price sits below network value, similar to past bottoms.

  • [Undervaluation]: BTC trades about 31 percent under the 126,000 dollar peak and below Metcalfe fair value.

  • [Network growth]: Active addresses, transactions, and spot CVD all rise, pointing toward stronger demand.

“Price below Metcalfe value delivers positive one year performance in most cases,” said economist Timothy Peterson.

Fed cash wave versus 50,000 dollar risk

Fed adds cash again, risk assets feel the tailwind.

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  • [Liquidity jolt]: Overnight repo added 13.5 billion dollars, second largest since the COVID shock.

  • [Reversion risk]: Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone sees fair value near 50,000 dollars based on the Bitcoin gold ratio.

“Extreme stock market complacency suggests further downside in risk assets, with Bitcoin leading the way,” said McGlone.

Bollinger Bands hint at 55,000 dollar floor

Analysts see smaller drawdown than past cycles.

  • [Band support]: Monthly Bollinger Bands still hold, with price near the mid line, far above 55,000 dollars support.

  • [Institutional floor]: CoinEx analyst Jeff Ko points to deeper liquidity and ETF flows, targeting 65,000 to 68,000 dollars as bear case.

“I do not expect another 70 to 80 percent drawdown,” said Ko.

ETH whale reloads, Lee shifts BTC target

Bitmine accumulates ETH during weakness while Tom Lee moves BTC target into early 2026.

  • [ETH stack]: Bitmine bought about 23,700 ETH in three days for nearly 70 million dollars and now holds 3.7 million ETH, about 62 percent of a 5 percent supply goal.

  • [ATH timing]: Tom Lee now targets a new Bitcoin high by late January, tied to an equity rebound and easier Fed policy.

“Bitcoin reaches a new all time high by the end of January,” said Lee.

CAN YOU PREDICT THE PRICE?

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Tomorrow?🤔

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🚀Stay sharp. The path to $150K won't be linear🚀

This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results