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- Bitcoin tests 100,000 support as dip buyers load up and bear chatter grows
Bitcoin tests 100,000 support as dip buyers load up and bear chatter grows
BTC fell under 100,000, some call a bear market, others see a routine correction. Accumulator wallets bought aggressively, while liquidity and key levels drive the next move.
Joe G & Money Talks
November 05, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
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What we will talk about today...
Three things needed to avoid a deeper Bitcoin drawdown
Token burns move price only with real demand and transparency
21 percent dip looks normal as accumulators buy the fear
Analysts warn of bear signals, watch 99,000 and 98,000 next
A clear checklist for bulls. Price, liquidity, and policy need to line up.
$BTC (yellow) -5%, $ liq (white) -8% since US debt ceiling raised in July. TGA build up sucked $ out of the system. When US gov shutdown ends, TGA will fall +ve for $ liq, and $BTC will rise ... and $ZEC will go up MOAR!
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes)
7:26 AM • Nov 5, 2025
Hold the 200-week EMA: Staying above roughly 100,950 keeps the long-term uptrend intact.
Liquidity returns to markets: A U.S. shutdown resolution and TGA normalization would ease the squeeze.
Fed balance sheet support: Repo usage and balance sheet growth would add dollar liquidity that favors BTC.
“If the Fed’s balance sheet grows, that is dollar liquidity positive, and ultimately pumps the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos.” — Arthur Hayes
“The system only has two modes, print money or destroy money. Right now, it’s the latter, but not for long.” — Arthur Hayes
Token burns move price only with real demand and transparency
Supply cuts help when backed by revenue and usage. Without buyers, burns fall flat.
Revenue-backed burns work: BNB’s ongoing Auto-Burn ties reductions to price and onchain activity, signaling durable demand.
Meaningful percentage matters: Small burns against huge supplies barely change scarcity.
Ecosystem growth drives effect: Rising usage on chains like BNB and Ethereum turns burns into lasting deflation, not marketing.
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“Burn percentage matters more than the absolute number of tokens destroyed.” — Analysis
“Investors prefer onchain proof, not vague burn claims.” — Analysis
21 percent dip looks normal as accumulators buy the fear
Large buyers treated sub-100,000 as an entry, setting a monthly record.
$BTC corrections
During this cycle, the typical correction signature has been between 20-25%, with a couple of 30% ish ones.
This current correction is at 21%, totally within the normal parameters.
Looking at the current move as this horrible crazy outlier is just not
— Lourenço VS (@lourenco_vs)
9:44 AM • Nov 5, 2025
375,000 BTC in 30 days: Accumulator addresses bought at record pace.
50,000 BTC in one day: The Tuesday drop under 100,000 triggered heavy bids.
Within historical ranges: The current 21 percent drawdown matches typical cycle pullbacks of 20 to 25 percent.
“This current correction is at 21 percent, totally within the normal parameters.” — Lourenço VS
“Even though overall demand has slowed, that is not the case for these investors.” — Darkfost
Analysts warn of bear signals, watch 99,000 and 98,000 next
Funding, stablecoin dominance, and cost-basis levels point to pressure, with clear supports below.
Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.📉glassno.de/4ojfrSN
— glassnode (@glassnode)
10:30 AM • Nov 4, 2025
$BTC Now broke below its 10th of October low.
This is the last major level before the $98K low from the middle eastern war fud back in June.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto)
5:13 PM • Nov 4, 2025
Funding down 62 percent: Longs pay less, showing weaker risk appetite.
Short-term holder cost basis lost: Price sits below about 113,000, a mid-term caution signal.
Key supports: 99,000 from supply quantiles, then 98,000 near liquidation clusters, with 95,000 below.
Bear market confirmed 🤔
I can't ignore this USDT dominance h&s breakout.
Bull has time to invalidate this though
— Mikybull 🐂Crypto (@MikybullCrypto)
7:35 AM • Nov 5, 2025
This is a good example of what the Risk-Off Signal does: when selling pressure intensifies, the indicator destabilizes.
It’s still within a low-risk regime, but if it transitions into a high-risk, that signals a potential trend shift.
In other words, if the indicator enters
— Swissblock (@swissblock__)
2:00 PM • Nov 4, 2025
“This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite.” — Glassnode
“Bear market confirmed.” — Mikybull Crypto
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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results