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Bitcoin Holders Stay Firm Despite Record Highs

Bitcoin’s climb to $109K wasn’t enough to trigger major sell-offs, with long-term holders still holding firm. On-chain data suggests a more controlled bull market.

• Main Points:

  • Midterm Holders Hold Strong: Investors from 2020–2022 are still holding, despite significant gains.

  • Lower Selling Pressure: Bitcoin’s wealth share in this cohort remains historically high.

  • Speculative Frenzy Absent: Short-term holders own 40% of BTC wealth, well below past cycle peaks.

  • Long-Term Holders Cashing Out: Two-thirds of 5–7 year holders exited by December 2024.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Sustained Confidence: Even investors with a $3,600 cost basis are waiting for higher prices.

  • Market Stability: Unlike past cycles, no extreme speculative activity is evident.

  • Moderate Profit-Taking: Some long-term holders have sold, but not at historical peak levels.

  • Tempered Bull Run: The current uptrend remains distributed, not driven by hype.

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Bitcoin’s Weakness Isn’t Just About Tariffs

Bitcoin’s failure to break $89K isn’t solely due to the US-led trade war. Other macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment played key roles in BTC’s struggle.

• Main Points:

  • Tariffs Overblamed: BTC showed limited upside before trade tensions escalated.

  • ETF Inflows Remain Strong: $2.75B entered Bitcoin ETFs despite tariff news.

  • Inflation Eases: Slowing inflation reduces BTC’s appeal as a hedge.

  • Risk Aversion Rises: Weak job data and lower Treasury yields favor safer assets.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Market Expectations Fell Short: Hopes for a US Bitcoin stockpile didn’t materialize.

  • Stock Market Attraction: Lower rates benefit equities and real estate over crypto.

  • Early BTC Struggles: Bitcoin failed to hold $100K well before tariffs began.

  • Investor Caution: Uncertain economic conditions keep traders hesitant.

$38 Trillion in US Brokerages Still Blocked from Bitcoin

Despite Bitcoin ETFs gaining approval, most US brokerage assets remain restricted from BTC investments, limiting widespread adoption.

• Main Points:

  • Limited Access: $38.2T of brokerage assets are blocked from BTC exposure.

  • Major Players Restrict BTC: Vanguard, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and others forbid BTC recommendations.

  • Few Allow Full Access: Only Fidelity, Schwab, and Wells Fargo permit broad BTC investments.

  • Retirement Limits: Many retirement and mutual fund strategies exclude BTC.

• Detailed Insights:

  • ETF Growth Misleading: Over 1.1M BTC trade via ETFs, but brokerage restrictions persist.

  • SEC Approval Not Enough: Regulatory green lights haven’t led to universal accessibility.

  • Institutional Hesitation: Many firms prefer traditional diversification over BTC.

  • Future Uncertainty: It remains unclear if more brokerages will lift restrictions.

CAN YOU PREDICT THE PRICE?

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results