Bitcoin faces record options expiry as Fed rate cuts fuel year-end forecasts

Over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today. Analysts weigh Fed cuts, ETF flows, and volatility in predicting where Bitcoin will land by Christmas.

Joe G & Money Talks
September 19, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

What we will talk about today...

$4.3 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire

Fed Rate Cut Sets Stage for Bitcoin’s Year-End Price

Christmas Bitcoin Price Targets

Options expiry signals short-term volatility.

[BTC options]: $3.5 billion expiring, max pain at $114,000, Put-to-Call ratio at 1.23.
[ETH options]: $806 million expiring, max pain at $4,500, PCR at 0.99.
[Market impact]: Traders expect price pullbacks toward max pain levels before stabilization.

“Options open interest hit a record 500,000 BTC ahead of September 26 expiry. Holding above $115,200 is key while a drop risks $105,500.”

Glassnode

First cut in nine months shifts market expectations.

[Policy move]: Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25%, signaling two more cuts this year.
[BTC reaction]: Price briefly jumped above $117,000 before settling.
[ETF demand]: US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold $151.7 billion, about 6.6% of supply.

“My base case is a stair-step move. Break $120,000, consolidate, then push higher into year-end.”

Enmanuel Cardozo, Brickken

Analysts outline possible ranges for December.

[Bitget outlook]: Consolidation first, then $123,000 to $150,000 if cuts materialize.
[Brickken outlook]: Higher chance of closing above $120,000, with potential to reach $150,000.
[Bitfinex outlook]: Base case $125,000–$135,000, downside floor $110,000–$115,000.

“With steady ETF inflows and Fed easing, Bitcoin tracks toward $125,000–$135,000 by year-end.”

Bitfinex analysts

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results