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Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Traders Brace for Volatility and Weak Momentum

Bitcoin closed October with its worst monthly drop since 2018. Analysts warn of more downside risk toward $70,000, even as November’s historical trends and macro factors offer potential recovery signals.

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Joe G & Money Talks
November 01, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

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Bitcoin Starts $100K Capitulation as Volatility Returns

History Warns of a Drop Toward $70K After Red October

Bitcoin Enters Its Historically Strongest Month

Bitcoin Rally Near $111K Shows Weak Momentum

Bitcoin Starts $100K Capitulation as Volatility Returns

Traders turned cautious after Bitcoin failed to hold October gains. ETF outflows and narrowing Bollinger Bands point to renewed price swings.

  • ETF Outflows: $679 million in two days show waning institutional demand.

  • Volatility Signal: Bollinger Bands reach record compression, often a precursor to large moves.

  • Trader Sentiment: Analysts call current action “time-based capitulation” near $100,000.

“BTC time-based capitulation is happening now. A weekly close below $100,000 confirms the downtrend,” said Ted Pillows.

History Warns of a Drop Toward $70K After Red October

Bitcoin ended October down 3.7%, breaking a six-year streak of green months. Analysts see parallels with 2018 when BTC fell 36% in November.

  • Historical Pattern: The last red October led to a 36.5% crash the next month.

  • Performance Record: BTC averaged double-digit gains in five of the past six Octobers before this year.

  • Market Risk: Analysts warn November could mirror 2018 if support levels fail.

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“If history repeats, Bitcoin could revisit $70,000 in November,” said analysts at CoinGlass.

Bitcoin Enters Its Historically Strongest Month

Despite October’s losses, November has averaged 42% gains for Bitcoin since 2013. Analysts see macro factors aligning for another rally.

  • Seasonal Data: Average November return of 42.5% could push BTC above $160,000.

  • Macro Tailwinds: Fed rate cuts and easing US-China tensions could lift sentiment.

  • Risks: Ongoing US government shutdown delays crypto ETF approvals and adds uncertainty.

“Seasonal charts matter, but they must align with macro trends,” said Markus Thielen of 10x Research.

Bitcoin Rally Near $111K Shows Weak Momentum

Bitcoin’s rally stalled near $111,000 as trading volume dropped and technical signals diverged, hinting at a short-term top.

  • OBV Decline: On-Balance Volume fell from 1.83M to 1.69M since July, showing weaker buying.

  • Volume Drop: Reduced trading activity points to fading demand.

  • Key Levels: $110,000 acts as support, $115,000 as resistance for next move.

“Euphoric sentiment at $111K mirrors previous tops. Watch volume for signs of a correction,” said IncomeSharks.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results