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Bitcoin Faces Key Inflection Point: Market Dominance Climbs, But Macro & Seasonal Headwinds Loom

Bitcoin Faces Key Inflection Point: Market Dominance Climbs, But Macro & Seasonal Headwinds Loom

Bitcoin’s market dominance hit a 3-year high in 2025, but seasonal weakness, poor U.S. job data, and mixed macro signals cloud its short-term trajectory. Still, long-term bulls eye a surge to $150K and beyond.

Joe G & Money Talks
August 02, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

What we will talk about today...

Bitcoin Dominance Hits 59.3%, Can It Hold Through the August Slump?

Weak U.S. Jobs Report Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets, Bitcoin Wavers

$150K in Sight? Bulls Still Back Bitcoin’s Year-End Rally

Bitcoin tightens its grip on crypto markets, but history warns of seasonal turbulence.

59.3% dominance: Bitcoin’s market share has surged in 2025, driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand.
67% odds of August-September decline: Historically, Bitcoin has dropped in these months 8 of the last 12 years.
Daily volatility drops: BTC’s dominance fluctuations have narrowed to 1.2%–1.6%, signaling a maturing trend.

Bitcoin dominance is up for the third consecutive year.
Our latest study shows that $BTC dominance has hit an average of 59.3% in 2025 and reclaimed majority market share.
Here’s a breakdown of the 12-year trend 👇
— CoinGecko (@coingecko)
5:30 PM • Aug 1, 2025

August and September are historically the worst months for $BTC.
In eight of the past 12 years, $BTC prices have fallen in August and September, with a 67% probability of decline.
coinglass.com/today
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain)
3:00 PM • Aug 1, 2025

“Bitcoin’s dominance recovery is fueled by institutions, but don’t underestimate the weight of seasonal patterns.”

Izabela Anna, CoinGecko

Weak U.S. Jobs Report Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets—Bitcoin Wavers

A soft labor market spurs expectations of monetary easing, but Bitcoin fails to break higher.

73K jobs added in July: Far below forecasts, with unemployment rising to 4.2%.
67% chance of September Fed cut: Market sees increased odds for rate easing, per CME data.
Bitcoin dips below EMA: BTC slipped under $117.5K resistance, reflecting trader caution.

“Despite dovish signals, Bitcoin’s reaction shows macro stress may outweigh short-term rate optimism.”

Coin Edition

$150K in Sight? Bulls Still Back Bitcoin’s Year-End Rally

Despite a summer dip, analysts and institutions remain optimistic for a big Q4 comeback.

$115K → $150K range forecast: TeraHash sees upside if ETF flows and macro stability continue.
MiCA, SEC clarity, Fed pivot: Key Q4 catalysts cited by analysts for renewed BTC momentum.
Mining pressure mounts: Hashrate projected to hit 1.2 ZH/s, with efficiency becoming critical post-halving.

“Bitcoin mining in late 2025 is about precision, adaptability, and staying ahead.”

TeraHash

“$250K is within reach.”

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors

CAN YOU PREDICT THE PRICE?

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Tomorrow?🤔

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results