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85% Odds Predict Bitcoin to Surpass $100K by New Year

Betting markets forecast a strong finish for Bitcoin in 2024, with an 85% chance of hitting $100K amid rising sell-side pressure and institutional inflows.

• Main Points:

  • High Predictions: Bitcoin likely to hit $125K by Dec. 31, per Kalshi data.

  • ETFs Absorbing Pressure: 90% of long-term holder sales offset by ETF inflows.

  • Market Surge: November gains up 40%, with Q4 growth at 55%.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Forecast Breakdown: 85% odds for $100K, 9% for $150K, and some bets on $250K.

  • Institutional Role: ETFs managing over $100B AUM, bolstering demand.

  • Volatility Warning: Long-term holders cashing out as unrealized profits peak.

  • Psychological Barrier: $100K remains a critical level for market momentum.

  • Market Cap Implication: Potential for Bitcoin’s market cap to hit $2.5T by January.

Related: Crypto Price Analysis: BTC Near $100K, Altcoins Show Mixed Signals

Bitcoin’s rally faces challenges from profit-taking, yet institutional inflows signal robust support for its six-figure climb.

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Bitcoin and Black Friday to Steer Markets This Week

As Bitcoin flirts with $100K, Black Friday and inflation data dominate the week's market narrative.

• Main Points:

  • Bitcoin Momentum: BTC peaked near $100K; holiday push could break the barrier.

  • Inflation Watch: Key PCE report may influence Fed's interest rate decisions.

  • Retail Surge: Black Friday shopping expected to drive $1 trillion in sales.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Bitcoin Outlook: BTC rose 42% post-election, nearing six figures amid bullish sentiment.

  • Overbought Signals: RSI levels above 80 signal potential sell-offs in the near term.

  • Fed’s Focus: October PCE data expected to show 2.7% core inflation, testing Fed’s 2% goal.

  • Market Rally: Broader indices gain traction; S&P 500 up 25% YTD, tech leads growth.

  • Black Friday Buzz: Holiday sales projected at $1T, with online spending up 12% YoY.

  • Economic Risks: Interest rates, inflation, and profit-taking could temper market optimism.

Related: Trump Nominates Bitcoin Advocate Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary

This week, Bitcoin enthusiasts and retail analysts will closely monitor holiday spending and key economic data for signs of sustained growth or potential corrections.

Is Altcoin Season Here? Bitcoin Dominance Drops as Alts Rally

Bitcoin’s dominance declines, paving the way for a potential altcoin season as several altcoins outperform BTC.

• Main Points:

  • Bitcoin's Retreat: BTC dominance dropped from 62% to 59% in just two days.

  • Altcoin Surge: Stellar (XLM), Ripple (XRP), VeChain (VET), and Polkadot (DOT) outshine BTC.

  • Key Indicators: Historical altcoin rally patterns are emerging across trading platforms.

• Detailed Insights:

  • Bitcoin Overview: BTC rose 9% last week but trailed its 17% post-election rally on Nov. 10.

  • Dominance Decline: BTC's dominance fell 3.65% this week, hinting at altcoin momentum.

  • Altcoin Gains: Standout alts like XLM and DOT posted significant gains, drawing attention.

  • Market Sentiment: Analysts predict “altseason,” comparing current patterns to the 2020 BTC cycle.

  • Altcoin Ecosystem: Altcoins represent diverse, decentralized financial tools optimized for Web3.

Related: Peter Schiff Points to MicroStrategy Behind Bitcoin’s $99K Surge

As Bitcoin cools off, eyes are on altcoins to lead the next crypto rally. The shift marks a critical moment in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results