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Bitcoin cycle breaks as institutions and nations ramp exposure

Post halving price action, corporate balance sheet bets, and El Salvador policy mark a new phase for Bitcoin. You need to track cycles, balance sheet risk, and sovereign adoption instead of price alone.

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Joe G & Money Talks
January 01, 2026 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

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What we will talk about today...

Four year Bitcoin cycle breaks as ETFs reshape returns

Schiff attacks Strategy over deep Bitcoin drawdown

El Salvador doubles down on Bitcoin and AI for 2026

Four year Bitcoin cycle breaks as ETFs reshape returns

First post halving year turns red and breaks the old pattern.

  • [First red post halving year]: 2025 closes with a red candle instead of the usual strong post halving rally.

  • [Early ATH]: All time high lands in March 2024, about one month before the halving instead of 12 to 18 months after.

  • [Lower volatility]: Spot ETFs and large funds absorb supply and leave 2025 with less than 10 percent yearly price change.

“This cycle breaks the one bear, three bull pattern and points to slower upside for Bitcoin,” said one analyst.

Schiff attacks Strategy over deep Bitcoin drawdown

Strategy shares slump while Bitcoin exposure grows.

  • [Stock hit]: Strategy stock drops around 47.5 percent in 2025, a level that would sit near the bottom of S&P 500 performance.

  • [Huge BTC stack]: Strategy holds about 672,497 BTC at an average cost near 74,997 dollars, after a fresh 1,229 BTC buy worth roughly 108.8 million dollars.

  • [Weak long term return]: Unrealized gain stands near 8.31 billion dollars over five years, about 3 percent per year, which Schiff calls poor versus traditional assets.

“Bitcoin focus leaves shareholders overexposed in down years,” Schiff said. “Capital allocation into other assets would have delivered stronger performance.”

The Year-End Moves No One’s Watching

Markets don’t wait — and year-end waits even less.

In the final stretch, money rotates, funds window-dress, tax-loss selling meets bottom-fishing, and “Santa Rally” chatter turns into real tape. Most people notice after the move.

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El Salvador doubles down on Bitcoin and AI for 2026

El Salvador leans hard into Bitcoin reserves and AI as core economic tools.

  • [Daily BTC buys]: Reserves reach about 7,517 BTC worth more than 660 million dollars while the government keeps buying one coin per day.

  • [Bitcoin Bank Law]: A new Investment Banking Law creates Bitcoin focused banks for high net worth and institutional clients and targets fresh foreign capital.

  • [AI education push]: A partnership with xAI supports a nationwide AI based education program to raise skills and draw technology investment.

“Bitcoin and AI form the backbone of the 2026 plan for abundance and excellence,” El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office said. “Boomer economies fall behind when they cling to old models.”

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This article is not financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results